Since January 2024, cocoa beans have more than doubled in price, becoming the most profitable of the major commodities in 2024.
In terms of growth, cocoa beans have overtaken even bitcoin, which was promised a grand future by the new US President Donald Trump, according to ZN.ua.
According to MarketWatch, the price of cocoa for March delivery reached $11,954 per metric ton, which means an increase of almost 185% since the beginning of the year. For comparison, bitcoin has risen in price by 128%, while the S&P 500 index has risen by only 25%.
According to ING, the 2023-2024 agricultural year ended with the largest cocoa supply shortage in 60 years due to extreme weather conditions that have been observed for several years. The International Cocoa Organization forecasts a cocoa shortage of 478,000 metric tons and a 13.1% year-on-year drop in production.
Cocoa beans will not fall in price
The world’s largest exporters of cocoa beans are Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, accounting for 60% of total world exports. At the same time, production and sales volumes in Côte d’Ivoire have been steadily declining: 656,140 tons in the 2022-2023 marketing year versus 683,269 tons in 2021-2022. In addition, cocoa is sensitive to climate change, with rising average temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns predicted to reduce yields in traditional production regions. The market in Europe and North America is increasingly demanding a product that is grown sustainably and free of child and slave labor.
Despite rising prices, demand for cocoa remains strong. The price is being pressured by the growing interest in cocoa and chocolate outside of Europe and the US, primarily in China and India. This factor will have an even greater impact than the decline in yields.